i feel old

Today my sister mentioned a blog post I wrote 7 years ago. Seven years! That's 25% of my life so far, and 10% of my life expectancy.

How long will this blog live for? It was about to die, but right now I feel like I should keep it.

the socks problem

I have the habit of leaving my clean clothes on the dryer until they run out or until I need to dry some more, case in which I transfer everything to a large basket. I rarely spend the time to put them away. When I need some socks I go to the dryer and try to find a matching pair. This process is often more difficult than I'd expect and it has bothered me for years.

So today I decided to compute the probabilities involved and the expected number of draws until I find a matching pair.

I draw one sock at a time uniformly at random until I have a matching pair. If I have 10 pairs of socks (all of them different), the probabilities of drawing a sock exactly at the k-th draw are as follows:

p(1 draw) = 0 (can't have a pair with only one sock)
p(2 draws) = (1 / 19) (I have 1 sock in my hands and I can draw any of the other 19 socks)
p(3 draws) = (1 - p(2)) * (2 / 18) (To get here, I can't have drawn a pair in the previous two draws; and now I have 2 socks and I can draw any of the other 18 socks)
...
p(10 draws) = (1 - p(2) - p(3) - ... - p(9)) * (9 / 11)
p(11 draws) = (1 - p(2) - p(3) - ... - p(9) - p(10)) * (10 / 10) (To get here, I can't have drawn a pair in the previous ten draws; I've also got all possible socks so anything that I draw at this point will match one of them, so the probability of finding a match here is 1)

The expected number of draws to find a matching pair is:
1 * p(1) + 2 * p(2) + 3 * p(3) + ... + 10 * p(10) + 11 * p(11)

That gives around 5.7 draws.

Ok, I don't feel as bad now. I still feel the universe is playing tricks on me, but at least they're subtle enough to keep my paranoia at bay.

Bonus: a graph showing the probabilities of finding a match on the k-th try.

go humans go?

Walking home an hour ago, I saw a similar advertisement on top of some random building here in Seattle. Having discussed the economic crisis and the apparent lack of purpose of many things in life over dinner with some friends, I felt like defacing it. Given my absolute lack of spraying and urban climbing skills, I didn't do it. Not incurring the risk of end up in jail was a nice bonus. But I hate to see an idea wasted, so here it is. Thanks to the wonders of the Internet, Microsoft Paint and the generosity of Gary Soup (who published the original under the Creative Commons license on Flickr), here's my virtual manifest:

Watchmen

I saw Watchmen at the IMax theater last Saturday. I felt bad for Alan Moore. I know he's a crazy dude, but... If I had written it I'd be pretty pissed off.

Good: scenarios, special effects, sound track, Rorschach, Comedian
Ok: Nite Owl (could be more dorky), Dr Manhattan (could have less feelings)
Bad: Ozymandias (not smart enough), Silk Spectre (not annoying enough)
Horrible: plot and continuity (it should suffice to say that the ending sequence was a complete screw up; it's not nearly as powerful as the original - maybe I'll write more once everyone saw it)

free, free palestine

Today a few hundred people here in Seattle protested against the Israeli attack on Gaza.

War sucks. Humanity should know better.

Little Joy in Seattle

Last Thursday I watched a couple songs by the Dead Trees and went to the bar to get a beer. We were standing there chatting and Rodrigo Amarante passes by, completely unnoticed. No fan crowd after him, just another guy at the bar. The four of us, all Brazilians, recognized him instantly. A bit afraid at first, we finally gathered courage to ask him to pose for a photo. He was very friendly and sat there talking to us for half an hour, just before their show. He told us that they've been on the road for quite a while, crossing the country in a van, carrying their own equipment, booking their own hotels, doing their thing like a small band. Amarante also mentioned Little Joy's plans to play in Brazil, and said that sometime in 2009 Los Hermanos will get together for a concert, and after that they'll go to a studio to record their next album.

Yay! The best Brazilian band is getting back together soon!

Uhm, the concert? Yes, that was pretty good too.

Edit: adicionando uma versão em Português e mostrando a nossa foto no El Corazón aqui em Seattle

Quinta passada eu assisti duas músicas do Dead Trees e fui pro bar pegar uma cerveja. A gente tava ali de pé conversando e o Rodrigo Amarante passa do nosso lado, totalmente despercebido. Nós quatro, todos brasileiros, reconhecemos o cara na hora. Vencemos o medo e tomamos coragem pra ir pedir uma foto com ele. Ele foi muito amigável e sentou ali conversando com a gente por meia hora, logo antes do show deles. Ele falou que eles estão na estrada faz um bom tempo, cruzando o país numa van, carregando o próprio equipamento, reservando hotéis, dando uma de banda pequena mesmo. O Amarante também falou dos planos do Little Joy de tocar no Brasil, e falou que em 2009 Los Hermanos vão se reunir pra um show e em seguida vão pro estúdio gravar o próximo álbum.

Uhu! A melhor banda brasileira volta logo!

Ah, o show do Little Joy? É, foi muito bom também.

Little Joy

Little Joy is the best thing that happened to music this year. Rodrigo Amarante (Los Hermanos) and Fabrizio Moretti (Strokes) got together to write a delightfully unpretentious album about love. Check it out!

Congratulations, Mr. Obama

The world welcomes you in hopes of a brighter future.

Death Magnetic

Believe it or not, Metallica's last album is actually good. Oh boy, it was about time they remembered how to do it.

Beautiful

http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2008/10/earth_from_above_comes_to_nyc.html

I'm a PC

And this is addictive: http://andimapc.com/.

Such Great Heights

I am thinking it's a sign
That the freckles in our eyes
Are mirror images and
When we kiss they're perfectly aligned
And I have to speculate
That God himself did make us into
Corresponding shapes like puzzles pieces
From the clay
True, it may seem like a stretch
But it's thoughts like this
That catch my troubled head
When you're away, when I am missing you to death
When you were out there on the road
For several weeks of shows
And when you scan the radio
I hope this song will guide you home
They will see us waving from such great heights
"Come down now," they'll say
But everything looks perfect from far away
"Come down now," but we'll stay

(...)

(this is a song by The Postal Service that inevitably makes me think of the woman I love)

you've got to love the Music Genome Project

While exploring Pandora, I somewhat randomly clicked on a button on the iPhone version of the app. Then it said:

Why this song is playing:

"We're playing the track because it features electric rock instrumentation, punk influences, extensive vamping, major key tonality, electric rhythm guitars and many other similarities identified in the Music Genome Project."

I couldn't resist clicking next:

"electronica roots, a laid back male vocal, vocal samples, a repetitive verse, a repetitive chorus, use of modal harmonies, dry snare, emphasis on instrumental performance, a tight kick sound, inventive instrumental arrangements, a slow moving bass line, use of strings, subtle use of pianos, mellow piano timbre, thin ambient synth textures (...)"

One more:

"subtle use of vocal harmony, mixed acoustic and electric instrumentation, solo strings (...)"

Wow! I really like all those things but I had never thought of the individual elements that attract me in a song. Great job!

IE8 Beta 2 released

You can already download IE8 Beta 2, now featuring InPrivate Browsing. Excerpt from the site:

Sometimes you don’t want to leave any trace of specific web browsing activity, such as when checking e-mail at an Internet café or shopping for a gift on a family PC. InPrivate Browsing in Internet Explorer 8 helps prevent your browsing history, temporary Internet files, form data, cookies, and usernames and passwords from being retained by the browser, leaving no evidence of your browsing or search history.

Pretty awesome, huh?

Oasis

I just came back from their concert here in Seattle. Good show, nothing really special to note. I was surprised to see them ending their set with "I am the Walrus", but it seems they do that.

Along the same lines as the Radiohead "review", my personal impression of Oasis is that they're not unique and they're not different, but they excel at being a normal rock band. And that's quite an accomplishment, since that's pretty much what a lot of other bands try (and fail) to do.

Lucid Dreams

Franz Ferdinand's latest single, Lucid Dreams, is pretty good.

Radiohead

I must admit I never cared much for them - I always thought of the band as a sad bunch, the Fake-Plastic-Trees guys. Sometimes I even found them slightly irritating.

Yesterday I spent 4 hours in various traffic jams to see them live. It was raining and cold and my expectations were low. I wasn't too happy when I got there and saw the show had already started.

I stood there, looking at the strange green lights playing on stage and the thousands and thousands of heads looking, listening. And I figured there must have been something going on. What attracts this crowd?

After listening to a few songs, I felt I understood the big picture, the high-altitude view. Radiohead is about us. It's about a dysfunctional world, about a non-harmonic society that somehow fits together and keeps moving on. It's sad, of course, but it's also very true.

Yesterday, for the first time I really appreciated their work. Great band. Great concert.

no sunlight, no sunlight

I had the weirdest reaction to the clouds that appeared in the Monday morning sky. I welcomed them. After a good few weeks of summer, warm temperature, blue skies and all, I found myself mysteriously missing the clouds. That's particularly strange for one who couldn't bear the permanently clouded cold weather of Seattle last winter.

On Monday I felt invigorated by the darker skies. How can that be?

Meme

What better way of celebrating my newly declared personal blog than answering and spreading out a meme?

I got this from Daniela Palazzo. The idea is to write about things you'd like to do before dying. There're 5 rules (free translation of the original post in Portuguese):

1. Write a list with 8 things you'd like to do before you die
2. Invite 8 friends to do the same
3. Leave a comment on the blog of the inviter
4. Leave a comment on the blogs of your invitees
5. Mention the rules

My list (no particular order here):

1. Be a millionaire
2. Start my own school to help the unprivileged
3. Skydive
4. Have at least one child
5. Learn one more language
6. Plant a tree
7. Learn how to play another musical instrument
8. Visit at least 30 countries

I invite the following bloggers to answer this meme: Raquel Hirai, Rodrigo Hermann, André Lima, Nara e Eduardo, Ricardo Araújo, Raquel Recuero and Scott Adams.

I feel like I could...

like I could... TAKE ON THE BLOG!

Yes, that's right. It was about time I kicked all the slackers and admitted this is in fact a personal blog. So, there you go. Less nonsense, same URL.

(actually, I should let you know that André has his own blog; Renato, go make your own. Resistance is futile.)